Cyclical names should continue to do well, especially in Asia, but investors should consider some defensive plays--I favor consumer staples names with exposure to Asia.

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is more concerned about the strengthening Canadian dollar right now than he is about inflation.

Investors will be scouring earnings releases and conference calls this quarter for any further evidence that companies are seeing a real turn in business conditions.

For the US-based investor, buying Canada right now means accessing a relatively stable, low-beta play on a global economic recovery. It means benefitting from fundamental factors that support a strong and rising Canadian dollar. It means owning solid businesses that pay sustainable distributions.

During years when the February cattle futures contract is trading at a discount to the April contract in the early fall, the February contract gains on the April as we move from the end of one year into the beginning of the next.

Although natural gas prices recently hit a seven-year low on the spot market, the action in longer-dated futures and gas-related stocks suggests that a marked improvement is around the corner.

The end of easy oil remains arguably the most powerful driver in the sector, though the unprecedented drop-off in demand that occurred in the wake of the credit crisis and resultant economic dislocation has obscured this long-term trend. But with the global economy and credit markets now on the mend, this theme should come back with a vengeance over the next few quarters.

Do surging gold prices indicate inflation is making a comeback? We probably won’t be able to answer that one for a while. But one thing the yellow metal’s strength does indicate is the debasement of the US dollar after a year of unprecedented “quantitative easing” to head off depression, as well as the fact that the US is no longer the world’s only major market for raw materials.

It’s not easy to buy a market at a new high price, and this is where the fear comes in. The timid trader won’t even consider such a play. And this is exactly what I advocate as the next big trade.

The depressed crude oil prices at the end of 2008 and early 2009 were the real aberration--not the current quote. Those depressed prices reflected unusually weak near-term fundamentals and historic imbalances in the futures curve. Much of the subsequent rally has simply been an unwinding of those imbalances.