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Look for buying opportunities as the markets stutter, and don't sweat the spate of capital raises among master limited partnerships.


Before last year’s financial meltdown, China had already replaced the US as the world’s leading consumer of steel, copper and several other major commodities. At the beginning of the decade, for example, the US economy accounted for 25 percent of global demand for the red metal, while China consumed roughly 12 percent. By mid-2008, however, it was China consuming 27 percent, the US only around 12 percent.


Oil's rally was a major topic in the financial media on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a long list of pundits have attempted to explain the recent rally in crude prices. Many analysts asserted that oil's run-up has little to do with fundamentals of supply and demand, citing murky arguments related to the weaker US dollar and speculative fervor. But fundamementals are still at the heart of oil's recent move.


I see a price squeeze setting up in the July soybean contract as it heads toward expiration. A price squeeze occurs when the shorts (who are obligated to deliver a commodity) can’t find the product to deliver and instead must “pay up” to get out of their short position. This is what happened last September.


The weather is an important factor for investors to consider; expectations and forecasts, even when they ultimately prove incorrect, have a meaningful impact on some key market sectors. In this regard, one of the factors I watch most closely is El Niño Southern Oscillation, more commonly known by the acronym “ENSO.”


A month ago prominent bears were arguing that earnings season for the S&P 500 would cut the rally off the market’s March lows short. But just the opposite happened: Earnings results were largely well-received, and the advance continued.


As always, one of the most enjoyable and useful aspects of the show from my perspective has been the question and answer (Q&A) sessions that follow each of my presentations and panels. These questions give me a window into what investor sentiment is toward energy and various sub-sectors.


Come on, Cotton

Because of low prices, farmers in the cotton belt, which includes states such as Louisiana and Mississippi, planted the lowest cotton acres in 25 years. Lower acres equal lower supplies; add in a small carryover of supply from last year’s poor crop and supplies at the tail end of this crop are projected to be the smallest in seven years.


Q: Asia? A: Buy

Strong economic growth in China and other emerging economies has been the basic underpinning of the most profitable market trends in recent years, including the dramatic up-trends in energy and basic commodity prices.


Long the Loonie

Part of the loonie’s winning streak can be traced to the BoC’s stance on quantitative easing--that it won’t immediately create money out of thin air reduced the threat of an inflationary spiral.




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