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    The Safest Investment

    In good times, it’s natural to seek investments that will grow the fastest. Conversely, tough times like these bring out investors’ impulse to flee to the safest bets. The trouble is, nothing is 100 percent safe under all circumstances. And even pinpointing the highest percentage investments can be a chore when the economy is apparently shrinking and credit markets are still recovering from their deepest freeze in decades.


    Cost and time remain major deterrents to would-be builders of nuclear plants. Two things, however, have changed dramatically to make the economics actually worthwhile, at least for a handful of players.


    Before last year’s financial meltdown, China had already replaced the US as the world’s leading consumer of steel, copper and several other major commodities. At the beginning of the decade, for example, the US economy accounted for 25 percent of global demand for the red metal, while China consumed roughly 12 percent. By mid-2008, however, it was China consuming 27 percent, the US only around 12 percent.


    Change is on the way. Hawaii is launching what it calls an “energy sovereignty plan,” under which it hopes to wean itself off at least most of its foreign oil needs. In a partnership with the US Dept of Energy, the goal is to obtain 70 percent of the state’s electricity from “clean energy” by 2030. That’s 40 percent renewable energy and 30 percent from energy efficiency measures that reduce demand.


    The Logic of Oil Sands Cooperation

    The 170 billion barrels of recoverable reserves can help mitigate North American concerns about global security without causing extreme planetary degradation. The key is for US and Canadian policymakers to coordinate climate policy, combining efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, for example, by at least linking their respective cap-and-trade proposals that are almost sure to be enacted within the next 12 months.


    Beyond the Sunset

    There are still plenty of ways to score outsized returns and high yields from income-producing stocks, even at higher tax rates. For one thing, we’re coming off a very low point here in the markets. Despite the sharp rally from the March 9 lows, even financially secure companies that are consistently raising dividends and operating in recession-resistant industries are yielding in the upper single-digits.


    I expect the stock market recovery to persist through at least the end of this year amid gradually improving economic conditions. The most obvious question is how best to play this rally from a growth perspective. Here are a handful of the key themes we’re following or playing inside the Personal Finance Growth Portfolio.


    A month ago prominent bears were arguing that earnings season for the S&P 500 would cut the rally off the market’s March lows short. But just the opposite happened: Earnings results were largely well-received, and the advance continued.


    As always, one of the most enjoyable and useful aspects of the show from my perspective has been the question and answer (Q&A) sessions that follow each of my presentations and panels. These questions give me a window into what investor sentiment is toward energy and various sub-sectors.


    Stressed Out

    The market always looks ahead, never behind. The worst sin is always uncertainty, particularly when it affects literally every investment across the board as it has over the last nine months or so. What many forget is that getting out of such a funk doesn’t always take real, honest-to-goodness positive news. In fact, in the worst crises, all it may take is just a little certainty about where the bottom may be. Real good news is a major bonus.




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