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Nuclear power generation will play a vital role in meeting rising global demand. That nuclear power is a carbon-free source is only one factor in its rising profile; the operating economics are also highly competitive. Total global generation from nuclear sources is projected to grow close to 40 percent by 2030, with developing world countries such as China and India driving much of that growth. 


Cost and time remain major deterrents to would-be builders of nuclear plants. Two things, however, have changed dramatically to make the economics actually worthwhile, at least for a handful of players.


Thoroughbreds

Unless an economic disaster takes place between now and the end of the year, China will deliver growth closer to 8 than 7 percent, and India should be able to register something close to 6 percent.


Inflation Booming

There continue to be signs of green shoots sprouting in the economy.


Before last year’s financial meltdown, China had already replaced the US as the world’s leading consumer of steel, copper and several other major commodities. At the beginning of the decade, for example, the US economy accounted for 25 percent of global demand for the red metal, while China consumed roughly 12 percent. By mid-2008, however, it was China consuming 27 percent, the US only around 12 percent.


The End of the US Recession

The US recession, the deepest since WWII, should end at some point this summer. From our current vantage point, it appears that the prospects for global growth aren't as dour as many analysts predicted at the beginning of the year. And some countries, notably India, are poised to generate much of that growth over the next few years.


Emerging Canada

Since the S&P 500, the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Income Trust Index bottomed on March 9, the two Canadian indexes have correlated more with the MSCI Asia All Country ex-Japan Index. In other words, Canada’s stocks have become more and more levered to the global economy, including areas in Asia where signs of economic recovery are easier to see.


Change is on the way. Hawaii is launching what it calls an “energy sovereignty plan,” under which it hopes to wean itself off at least most of its foreign oil needs. In a partnership with the US Dept of Energy, the goal is to obtain 70 percent of the state’s electricity from “clean energy” by 2030. That’s 40 percent renewable energy and 30 percent from energy efficiency measures that reduce demand.


Renewable Alternatives

China could easily surpass Europe, Japan and the US by 2010 as the world’s largest consumer of renewable energy. And that not only needs to happen  but that has to happen given China’s energy consumption has more than trebled in just over three decades. Much of the country’s rapid economic growth is fueled by cheap abundant power and low-cost labor.


I expect the stock market recovery to persist through at least the end of this year amid gradually improving economic conditions. The most obvious question is how best to play this rally from a growth perspective. Here are a handful of the key themes we’re following or playing inside the Personal Finance Growth Portfolio.




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