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There was a time when a triple digit move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was considered a rarity. Now, it’s an everyday occurrence; in 38 out of the past 45 trading sessions, the Dow has gained or lost more than 100 points.


The more data we see, the more obvious it is that the economy hit a brick wall in October. Today’s blockbuster number was retail sales, which plunged by the largest amount on record, 2.8 percent versus 2.65 percent in November 2001. But it’s just the latest in a steady string of lousy numbers, ranging from surging unemployment to weak manufacturing.


For the first time since third quarter 2001, the US economy is shrinking. Third quarter numbers for GDP showed a 0.3 percent decline from the prior quarter. And given the recent declines in consumer confidence and consumer spending employment, it’s likely we’ll see further contraction in the fourth quarter and possibly into 2009.


Unfreezing Earnings

The credit crisis is easing, at least for now. After two weeks of coordinated global action to unfreeze lending markets, the key London Interbank rate is back down to roughly 3.5 percent. That’s still somewhat above normal rates but well down from the peak set earlier this month.


Economics and Politics

The markets took massive losses this week, as all three major indexes plunged with little support from any sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 5.4 percent for the week; the Nasdaq Composite shed 9.3 percent; and the S&P 500 knocked off 6.8 percent.


I recently spoke with Louis Rukeyser's Mutual Funds (LRMF) newsletter editor Benjamin Shepherd regarding the present state of investing in Asia and the future prospects of the region as an investment destination going forward. The full interview follows:


Fear in the Global Economic System

This year marks the most critical sequence of events in financial history. We’re witnessing the greatest shock to the system. There’s no way to be sure of the final outcome yet, but the world will certainly be a different place after all is said and done.


Real Change

Change is the watchword of this presidential election season. The fact that the candidate of the party currently out of power—Democrat Barack Obama—would talk about shaking things up is no great surprise in any campaign. This time around, however, even ruling party candidate John McCain is trying to present himself as an agent of change.


Capitalism Is Competition

Why is it that we can’t seem to allow another country to be successful without demonizing it? Next week marks the beginning of the Summer Olympics in and about Beijing. Although many of us might not care about the competitive sports, we do seem to have an insatiable appetite for news and commentary that takes pot-shots at the Chinese.



One of my favorite investors to discuss markets with, my father, turns 85 years old today. His approach has always differed somewhat from my own: While I’m usually conservative to a fault, he often sets his eyes on big gains and has done quite well at it over the years.




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