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Maple Leaf Memo

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    Converting now will allow Ag Growth greater access to capital as it pursues an aggressive growth strategy, much of which is focused on expanding its international presence. About two-thirds of the company’s 2008 sales were to US-based customers, a market supported by federal legislation mandating the use of corn-based ethanol in gasoline. But developing countries are also investing more in grain infrastructure.


    'Better' Doesn't Mean 'Good'

    The incremental progress we see in the BOS and the SLOS seems at odds with the 25 percent rallies we’ve seen in the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Income Trust Index, the S&P/TSX Composite as well as the S&P 500. But it’s important to note that the market is often disconnected from on-the-ground economic conditions. Financial markets are forward-looking mechanisms, and the fact that deterioration has slowed--not even reversing, in the case of many indicators--is good enough to let slip at least some of the animal spirits.


    The Sun'll Come Out

    The recent trend has been away from spending big dollars on exploration and production or mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas space, but we’ve seen several deals in recent weeks that confirm that companies are indeed looking to the future.


    Harper's Globetrotting

    On his way to London for a summit of G20 leaders, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper made stops in Washington, DC and New York to tout his ideas to fix broken banks and maintain free trade.


    What we have now is essentially the Fed creating currency out of thin air with which to purchase assets. This is clearly a mission reserved for the worst of circumstances, and we’ll deal with the unintended consequences later. But easing access to credit and stimulating growth are the objectives right now.


    What does the rise of the BRIC countries mean for Canada over the long term? Canada’s trade relationship with the four major emerging markets has certainly evolved during the past decade, and the future promises more of the same: Brazil, Russia, India and China are projected to grow significantly in coming decades, resulting in higher incomes and more purchasing power for their respective nascent middle classes.


    The Biggest "If," Ever

    US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in remarks prepared for an address to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, reiterated his view that the recession could end in 2009 if the financial system stabilizes.


    Q4 G7 GDP: U-G-L-Y

    The details of Korea’s February trade data offer a small bit of hope that the decline in global trade is slowing, or at least stabilizing. South Korea’s trade numbers are widely watched because they’re the first foreign figures released and usually provide a good indication of foreign trade and manufacturing activity in other Asian economies.


    The Market-Friendly Solution

    The first quarter numbers from the Big Five will likely reveal continuing profitability, but that won’t persist unless the root cause of the global meltdown is addressed. First comes the rescue of the US banking system, then we can talk about stabilization and recovery for Canada’s and the world’s economy.


    Canada's Big Five Banks: Compared to What?

    The current economic situation will challenge all financial institutions. Canadian banks have handled the first wave--the financial crisis--relatively well. The second wave--a serious economic downturn--will hit both capital and profits, but the Canadian banking system is probably better positioned than most others to ride it out.




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