Personal income data, like the latest FOMC statement, is getting a fair amount of play as yet another green shoot.

Personal income jumped 1.4 percent in May, much higher than anticipated; many bloggers and pundits are hailing this news as a signal that the recession is ending.

Under normal circumstances, that might be true. Typically, incomes begin to rise when competitive pressures push employers to pay higher wages to attract talent.

Any increase in income is welcome, but today's release is likely a one-off event driven by a stimulus bill that increased unemployment benefits, lowered taxes and put more cash into the pockets of Social Security beneficiaries. In fact, the pace of job losses continued largely unabated last month, leading to a 0.1 percent decline in wages and salaries.

In what some hail as another sign of recovery, spending rose 0.3 percent following a decline of 0.1 percent after April's spending was revised lower. That combination of a sizeable, albeit temporary, boost in income and slight increase in spending helped to push the US savings rate up to 6.9 percent last month--the highest level since 1993.

Can the economy recover without a jump in consumer spending?

Although government data puts the unemployment rate at 9.1 percent, the picture looks much grimmer when you include underemployed workers and those whose jobless benefits have expired. Based on this broader data sample, the unemployment rate exceeds 16 percent.

That level of unemployment isn't conducive to consumer spending and, more important, isn't likely to improve any time soon. Initial jobless claims have remained stubbornly above 600,000 since late January, and continuing claims continue to run over 6 million. Last week 627,000 new jobless claims were filed, while the number of continuing claims rose to 6.738 million.

An aging population will also challenge spending. According the US Census Bureau, by next year only a third of the population will be younger than 35 and another third will be nearing retirement. Workers typically spend less as they age, setting aside more of their income for when they retire.

That could translate into a long slog for retailers and other businesses catering to consumers, including the real estate market.

At the same time, rising savings could be good news for the economy. Households tend to invest their savings because cash-rates are so paltry; few people survive through retirement with just a savings account. Greater investment in business facilitates the development of new technologies. Overall, that equates to a stronger economy that isn't based on leverage.

Taxes are the one thing that could throw a monkey wrench in the works. If Americans expect taxes to increase in coming years because of the growing federal deficit, that could encourage them to keep their savings in lower yielding cash-like investments. Why invest when that could prove counterproductive and create more tax liability?

Given all the uncertainty, it may be wise to err toward the conservative side for a while yet. In the mutual fund universe, the biggest gainers this year have been small-growth and sector funds, imbuing the recent rally with a bit of a speculative feel.

Moreover, a lot of the positive economic data we've seen can be explained away fairly easily.

For instance, this week's real estate numbers looked fairly favorable; existing home sales were up 2.4 percent, and new home sales dropped just 0.6 percent. But that positive showing could be chalked up to seasonality. Be encouraged if housing markets show signs of improvement later in the year.

Between consumers and the government, the country has taken on massive amounts of debt. Until the deleveraging process progresses a bit further, that debt continues to be a real liability.

From my perspective, a consumer-less recovery is both possible and, from a long-term perspective, desirable. But it also makes the prospect of a V-shaped recovery much less likely.

In the meantime, taking on a bit of risk probably isn't a bad idea, particularly if you're considering investments in Asia and the emerging markets. On the other hand, most consumer discretionary plays remain extremely risky; Americans continue to service debt and set money aside.