
With all the unfolding shenanigans--from stock analysts pimping companies they know aren’t worth the ink and paper used to report trades on your brokerage statements to hedge funds and prime brokers getting to play by different sets of rules--the market continues to get more and more dicey for the average stock investor.
But who is the “average investor” nowadays?
The answer to that question back in the 1950s would indeed
be an individual just like you. But today it’s a whole different game. You’re almost
an afterthought when it comes to the stock market.
Back in 1950, 94 percent of all public shares were owned by
individuals. The market depended upon the average investor to buy if the market
was to work at all. By 1980, that number had dropped to about 60 percent, quite
a decline in just a few decades.
Today, only 34 percent of all shares traded in the
The most recent exchange data reveals that US institutions
own about $27 trillion of stock. That amount, despite crummy conditions, has
actually gone up by 11 percent recently. Institutions control the vast majority
of shares in the
“Institutional investor” is a broad term. It includes pension
funds, which account for an estimated 30 percent of institutional stock holdings.
Mutual funds--there are about 21,000 of them, according to Benjamin Shepherd of
Louis
Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds--own about 26 percent of shares outstanding.
Should this bother individual investors? Perhaps. If you
look at all the problems in the stock market--naked short-selling,
non-delivered shares for trades, abuses in margin borrowing--the question
becomes, who’s watching the market for our benefit?
Are we really the focus of regulators’, market makers’ and exchanges’
concern?
Because we’re no longer the majority of the market, and are
in fact a shrinking minority relative to our larger, supposedly professional
peers, perhaps the responsible authorities concentrate now on their best
customers, the big guys as opposed to us small fry.
The market can’t, however, devolve into a betting or trading
parlor. Were that to happen, slowly and surely the number of individual
investors would eventually disappear. Some might consider that a fine state of
affairs, individuals turning over our cash to institutions. But that’s definitely
not an attractive scenario.
Just because you’re bigger doesn’t mean you’re smarter. And
the ability to get away with trading abuses doesn’t mean you’ll make more
money.
The past year is a perfect illustration: Of the thousands
upon thousands of diversified mutual funds, 17 beat the general market.
Seventeen funds, not 17 percent of all funds. More and more fancy hedge funds are
going broke as their leaders try to scrape up what’s left and try to become
individual investors by choice or necessity. This is troubling, and not just
because the big guys aren’t better investors.
Their behavior--bad trading practices--as well as that of
regulators--allowing different types of investors to operate under different
sets of rules--is driving off individual investors. And those forces could
drive them away from even funds or pension accounts.
Back before Charles Dow stocks were seen to be for chumps
only. But Dow’s method of indexing and analyzing rationalized investment
decisions as well as a lot of work by many more folks leveled the stock market
playing field. It was no longer akin to a game of Three-Card Monte.
Before stocks become the rage, bonds--the vehicles I
continue to pitch--were it for individuals. Guess where more and more wealthier
investors are now putting their money? ?According to a recent survey of high-net-worth
US households, the No. 1 asset class on the list of gainers is bonds.
Not all stocks are sunk, and not all stock markets are
doomed. But before you devote anymore time and money to equities, consider bonds.
My favorite closed-end bond fund collection includes PIMCO Strategic Global Government (NYSE: RCS), which is up 175
percent over the past 10 years, 20 percent for the past year. That looks good
to me.
Another favorite collection comprises corporate bonds
packaged specifically with the individual investor in mind. I call them
mini-bonds; I cover them in the current issue of Personal Finance and on
an ongoing basis in The Yield Letter.
The mini-bond collection I’ve put together is generating an
average yield in excess of 8 percent, and it’s stable. Sounds like just the
right trade for the average individual investor.
Ship
Out
After all the work you’ve had to do to keep
your portfolio intact, how about some spoils? I’d like to extend an invitation
to join me on a
If you haven’t been on one with me, you
haven’t had the pleasure of sharing a bottle of something French along with a
nice cigar as background music plays and our ship plies the waters of one of
the seven seas. And in the morning, we can get on with the business of figuring
out how to make the most of the markets.
Even though 2008 has been a difficult year for many of our
favorite stocks, bonds and funds, we can commiserate and plan our regrouping
for 2009 over a glass of cognac and a fine cigar while cruising the warm waters
of the
We’ll talk about out what
investments will help our portfolios grow while enjoying warm waters from Miami,
on to island stops including St. Barthelemy, through the Panama Canal and
finally to Costa Rica.
Click here
for details.
Dead Guys of the Week
Ever wonder who’s behind your favorite comic strip? For
generations now, the characters from the mind of Charles Schulz have kept us
entertained and laughing, a particularly necessary respite after getting
through the day’s news.
Although the strip is excellent, thanks to the work of
Schulz and his appointed animator Bill Melendez, Charlie Brown, Lucy, Linus,
Snoopy,
All that work was overseen by Bill, who’s dead at 91 years.
Then there’s the darker side, the life of organized crime.
Who was really behind the likes of John Gotti and his brothers? Well, their
mother, of course.
Philomena Gotti is dead at 96 years. Born in
Speaking Engagements
Fall is the perfect time to enjoy
Join Roger Conrad, Elliott Gue and me for the DC Money Show
Nov. 6-8, 2008, at The
Click here
or call 800-970-4355 and refer
to priority code 011363 to register as my guest.
I’ll also be appearing at the
following events:
If you’re interested in having me
or one of my cohorts address any investment or professional groups, please
e-mail me at paymeweekly@kci-com.com with ideas or suggestions.
Neil J. George has worn many hats during his years as an insider in the bond and banking communities, learning the ropes with Merrill Lynch International Bank and serving as Chief Economist at Mark Twain Bank, Mercantile Bank and British-based Guinness Flight.
| NEIL GEORGE - BIO | ARCHIVES Free Tax-Free Bonds ReportEditor: Personal Finance, Neil's Inner Circle, The Yield Letter, Pay Me Weekly |
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