The US Dept of Labor reported this week that consumer prices
spiked to a multiyear high. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) hit 5.6 percent for the month of July.
And the headline number, which includes food and fuel costs,
is in fact the focus of many dramatic, eye-grabbing article titles in the print
and electronic media. But even core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is
running at an annual rate of 2.5 percent. It’s up for yet another month, rising
from the prior month’s rate of 2.4 percent and showing an upward trend from the
past few years’ low of 2 percent.
The core rate is more important for the longer haul. It summarizes
price behavior for a broader range of goods and services. Because food and
energy costs bobble along up and down from month to month and quarter to
quarter, academics--including the guys over on C Street at the Federal Reserve--keep a
sharp eye on the core rate.
You might say the core rate is a bunch of mumbo-jumbo made
up by the guys on Capitol Hill in an effort to make it seem inflation isn’t
such a big issue. And if you receive financial support from the federal government,
the lower the core rate, the lower the annual upward adjustments for those
payments.
The idea is that if energy and food prices continue to
climb, eventually those costs will make it into the core rate. And that’s
exactly what’s been happening.
We’re seeing a lot trading in the commodity markets for food
and energy as well as other raw materials. Oil has fallen back from its recent
peak during the past few weeks, which should eventually result in a lower
headline CPI rate. The trailing impact of past months should translate into a
few more months of upticks in core CPI.
All of this is academic for most investors and consumers. You
know how much goods and services are costing you, and prices aren’t heading
lower, despite what the media has to say.
We need to look at other economic numbers, such as data concerning
household spending. Embedded within the Personal Consumption Index is an inflationary
gauge that showed inflation running at a rate of 5.3 percent through June. And
that measure’s been climbing at a rate of 12.7 percent from the trailing 12
month low.
This is the real story about the rising cost of living.
There are more numbers even more disturbing for consumers as
well as for investors, who need their portfolios to stay ahead of inflation. On
the production front for goods and services, costs on the wholesale level sooner
or later will show up on the receipts for our purchases. And the most recent
month’s reporting shows that production costs for durables and manufactured
goods are rising by 8.1 percent.
This is scary. But does the Federal Reserve Open Market
Committee (FOMC) care? Its failure to tighten money via reserve and margin rate
hikes--beyond window-dressing moves such as boosting the fed funds target
rate--suggests it doesn’t.
One way to help our portfolios grow ahead of costs is to
invest in industries and markets that benefit from the rising costs of their
goods and services.
Focus on energy, including petrol producing partnerships or royalty
trusts. The more they make, the more you can afford to pay for your next
fill-up at the pump or your gas, heating oil or propane bills.
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And also take a look at the markets for crops. You’ve likely
read about the selloff in grain and other agriculture commodity prices. But the
reality is that, although grains have pulled back, foodstuffs are still up
substantially in the last year, corn by 62 percent, wheat 21 percent and beans
43 percent. Those are real numbers that will continue push the bottom line on
your grocery bill higher.
There are ways to invest, however, to stay ahead. One is to
buy actual agriculture commodities via Deutsche
Bank Agriculture Fund (AMEX: DBA). The exchange-traded fund tracks an index
of underlying agriculture product prices; those who’ve followed my lead are up
strongly. The fund is up 33 percent during the past year, even though it’s come
back a bit these past few weeks.
The recent selloff only makes for a compelling buying
opportunity; it’s just like going to the grocer and seeing a sale or having
some coupons on hand. Buy a bit more and keep your pantry a bit flusher while
prices are lower. The same applies for your portfolio.
A related issue is the continuing evolution of the agriculture
industry. Farmers--both family and corporate--are increasing interested in maximizing
production while minimizing risk. Technology--specifically genetically modified
organisms (GMO)--makes this possible.
Not everyone is convinced; I’m among the skeptics. I like to
consume organic goods from local producers whenever possible. I’ll pay more, but
I don’t have a big family or an SUV full of teenagers to feed.
Another fellow who’s drawn news coverage and a big backlash
from farmers and even greenies for his opposition to GMOs is Prince Charles. We
share the same family name and a liking for locally produced food, but that’s
about it.
(By the way, if you like local foods and game and find
yourself in London,
try a restaurant in the theatre district, Rules. Check it out on the Web at http:www.rules.co.uk.)
Charles gave a chat warning of calamity based on Europe’s acceptance of more GMO products as well as local
production of GMO crops. The earful he got in response might perhaps send him
back to the country palace rather than to the pulpit of another press
conference.
One key attribute of GMOs is they can reduce the amount of
fertilizer and water required to grow a crop. Fresh water is becoming scarcer
and more valuable, and dead zones in bays and the oceans are getting larger and
more threatening to fish populations around the planet. Even greenies are
coming around to GMOs.
And the global warming crowd sees the value in increasing
the efficiency of crop production. Crop-based biofuels are a major part of its arsenal
to combat carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, including
those produced by the agriculture industry.
Another way to ensure your portfolio outgrows inflation by
beating the cost of food is to focus on companies in the lead on GMO
technology, including products, processing and distribution.
GMO crop acreage is advancing at double-digit annual rates;
companies in the middle of this major growth trend will see tremendous
windfalls. Focus on those companies developing as well as those adopting newer
technologies that help make the most of what comes out of the ground.
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Long Hauler Bunge (NYSE: BG) and UAP Holdings (NSDQ: UAPH) are US-based
companies showing a lot of success in the space, and Israel Chemicals (Tel Aviv: ICL, OTC: ISCHF) and Makhteshim-Agan Industries (Tele Aviv: MAIN, OTC: MAIDF) will continue to be big growers for
investors.
Another precious resource provides opportunities to keep
your portfolio ahead of inflation: water. Veolia
Environnement (NYSE: VE) is a longtime favorite of ours in PF, and the spinoff from the Suez/Gaz
de France merger, Suez Environnement (Paris: SEV), provides a new way to play the
wet stuff, which we’ve been doing in my trading service Inner Circle.
A
Cruise to Grow On
A little one-on-one time with me and my pals
Elliott Gue and Roger Conrad may be just the thing to help figure out how to
grow your portfolio.
Even though 2008 has been a difficult year for many of our favorite
stocks, bonds and funds, we can commiserate and plan our regrouping for 2009 over
a glass of cognac and a fine cigar while cruising the warm waters of the Caribbean.
We’ll talk about out what
investments will help our portfolios grow while enjoying warm waters from Miami,
on to island stops including St. Barthelemy, through the Panama Canal and
finally to Costa Rica.
Click here
for details.
Dead Guys of the Week
A man who spent his career helping to grow students’ minds
died at a mere 65 years.
Art Sandler was a kid from the Bronx
who went to City College of New York and made the most of it. After finishing
off multiple degrees at other institutions, he headed west to the Gateway City,
my hometown, St. Louis.
Art joined up with the venerable Webster
University, where my father is president and I serve as an adjunct
professor and board member of the School of Business & Technology.
A professor of philosophy, Art made the most of his mind to create
a major, one of the first of its kind in the world, International Human Rights.
Along with another departed professor, Harry Cargas, and financial support from
many people, including NBC’s Bob Costas, Art traveled the world to lecture at
Webster’s many locations on how to ensure better political leadership.
Another fellow who tried to grow a new form of power died at
75.
Hydrogen fuel cells are cited by many as one potential
alternative energy source, for cars and other vehicles to consumer electronics
devices and perhaps even our homes.
In fact, Honda Motor
(NYSE: HMC) this week rolled out its second series of hydrogen fuel cell-powered
cars for a select group of celebrity customers in and about the Los Angeles metropolitan
area.
Geoffrey Ballard loved the concept and the technology of
fuel cells. Using the technology developed by General Motors (NYSE: GM) back in the 1960s and utilized in NASA
projects, Geoffrey founded Ballard Power
Systems (TSX: BLD, NSDQ: BLDP) and made significant inroads toward growing
the capabilities and adoption of hydrogen fuel cells.
Speaking Engagements
Fall is the perfect time to enjoy Washington, DC’s
outdoor treasures and catch a glimpse of nature’s splendor. And this year you
can enjoy the immediate aftermath of the presidential election in the seat of
the federal government.
Join Roger Conrad, Elliott Gue and me for the DC Money Show
Nov. 6-8, 2008, at The Wardman
Park Marriott.
Click here
or call 800-970-4355 and refer
to priority code 011363 to register as my guest.
I’ll also be appearing at the
following events:
- The
Financial Advisors Investment Conference, October 2008
- The
World Money Show, London,
England,
November 2008
- The
2008 KCI Investing Cruise,
Dec. 1-12, 2008
If you’re interested in having me
or one of my cohorts address any investment or professional groups, please
e-mail me at paymeweekly@kci-com.com with ideas or suggestions.
Errors/Omissions: I always welcome
being called on facts, figures and commentary from readers and look forward to
your feedback. I can be reached by e-mail at paymeweekly@kci-com.com.