The circumstances are always different, but the emotions are
the same in bear markets: Despondency, despair and fear that the worst is yet
to come.
The good news is it’s never as bad you think. But navigating your way through
bear markets is as much a part of successful investing as making the most of
bull markets. Asset values fall in a bear market, so odds are heavy that you’re
going to lose money. Even those solidly short are always at risk because
volatility tends to also be extremely high.
In the eye of the storm in this bear market--or, basically, the storm itself--are
the financials. This bear market and the economic downturn in the
The latest to hit the headlines is the roiling of the markets for so-called
“variable-rate demand securities,” which essentially have allowed a wide range
of entities to borrow for less in a tightening credit market. The $73 billion
of these securities issued by municipalities in the first half of the year
alleviated the strain when the market for another derivative security—auction-rate
securities—collapsed earlier this year.
The twist of variable-rate demand securities is the buyer can sell anytime back
to the market maker, typically banks. Given the hit to their balance sheets
from the mortgage meltdown, banks have become noticeably less willing to
support this market. The result is soaring interest rates for borrowers,
including some municipalities paying more than 10 percent.
To reduce its exposure to the auction security meltdown of earlier this year, Citigroup
(NYSE: C) announced this week that it would buy back $7.3 billion of them from
a range of mostly smaller owners. That was part of a settlement with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission, and it may alleviate the stress on the
banks from this quarter.
The fallout downstream, however, remains a worry. A number of companies have
purchased these securities as a place to park their cash. This is working
through the system now in second quarter results.
Municipalities, however, are especially vulnerable. These have become increasingly
cash strapped as real estate property values have fallen and other costs--such
as transportation--have risen. Many have turned to auction-rate securities and
variable-rate demand securities as alternatives to refinancing soaring debt
costs.
The problem came when the bond insurers backing this debt lost their
investment-grade ratings earlier this year. That allowed banks to back out of
their obligation to buy back the auction securities.
With issuing auction-rate securities no longer an option and variable-rate
demand securities scarce as well, municipalities are rapidly running out of
options to support themselves, even as the economy weakens. That has very bad
implications for city services in the most hit areas, as well as for municipal
bonds.
And munis aren’t the only area hit by financial system’s plight. The mortgage
arena is still critically weak. Government affirmations of support for Fannie
Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) have
prevented their outright collapse. But they’ve done little to halt the erosion
of this industry overall, as defaults on even-higher-rated mortgages have begun
to rise.
Weakened mortgage markets mean potential further hits to the banks that own
mortgage-backed securities, as well as writedowns at the regional banks for
whom they’re the bread and butter. That’s one reason why regionals are also
almost surely not through with their writedowns, despite the recent string of
poor results.
The
Unemployment insurance claims hit a multiyear high last week, a sign the
heretofore solid jobs markets is at last coming under pressure. That won’t help
the market for office space. Nor is it a plus for businesses that depend on
consumer spending, as recent results for companies ranging from retail to
automobiles clearly show.
The worst thing about a crisis in the financial system is virtually everyone
depends on credit to some extent. When the banks are stretched, credit
conditions tighten. And the more a company or individual depends on credit to
finance daily business, the more exposed they are to trouble.
On the other hand, it’s clear from second quarter earnings--just as it was from
results in first quarter 2008 and fourth quarter 2007--that some businesses are
making it. Simply, the combination of tighter credit, rising raw materials
prices and sluggish
Were this recession getting progressively worse, you might expect at least some
of the good performers from the first quarter, for example, to falter in the
second. That, however, doesn’t appear to be the case--at least not yet.
This week’s batch of earnings in the utility sector is almost universally
positive. In fact, the stars continue to be companies with the most developed
unregulated operations, from Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC), with the strong performance of its nuclear power
plant fleet, to Verizon Communications’ (NYSE: VZ) robust wireless
operation.
As management has maintained repeatedly, the storm that is
Of course, even the utilities and telecoms with blockbuster earnings have taken
a hit over the past month, as the financials’ storm has worsened. That’s how
the storm has hit them. The difference is, when this thing does eventually blow
over, the companies hit only as stocks--not as businesses--will rebound in
short order.
The key for investors is to ensure their holdings do continue performing well
as businesses. And solid second quarter earnings--the fourth quarter of the
slowdown that began in mid-2007--are the best possible indication that a
business is holding its own.
Note there are also definitely sector weaklings, even in these industries. Pure
wireless play SprintNextel (NYSE:
S), for example, reported very dismal results as it continued to lose
customers to rivals despite the obvious good health of its core industry. Even
the company’s sole bright spot--a slightly less-than-expected loss of customers
to rivals--was tempered by management’s forecast that loss rates would
accelerate yet again in the second half of the year.
Overseas, Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) has hardly been a picture of
vitality for more than a decade, losing customers and spending billions on
expansion that’s yet to benefit shareholders. But the company’s huge earnings
shortfall in the second quarter is the worst news yet, particularly because the
T-Mobile division appears to be paying the price for not having a
US-wide network.
The bottom line is you can’t count on a particular sector or type of investment
to be proof against this bear market. In fact, every company in every industry
is vulnerable to the storm that’s beating around the financial sector. And as
the selloff in energy stocks last month showed, even the strongest-performing
sectors with the most powerful underlying fundamentals aren’t immune.
In my view, the damage has been done in energy. We may see a bit more of a
pullback in crude oil and natural gas prices. But the stocks are now priced
back where they were when oil traded in the $60 to $70 range, and gas was in
the $5 to $6 range. Those aren’t levels energy prices are going to hold for
very long, given strong global demand, no matter what the
But energy’s demise does make the clear point that you can’t count on any type
of investment to pull you through this. Instead, you’ve got to focus on the
individual companies and their earnings, and that’s precisely what I’m doing in
Utility Forecaster and Canadian Edge.
Note my advice remains to continue holding the best representatives from a range
of sectors, even if one of them seems to falter. Wells
Financials are the market storm now. But eventually, they’ll again lead the
market higher, as they’ve tried to do abortively in recent weeks. Keep some
good ones, and stay balanced.
Roger S. Conrad is
editor of Utility Forecaster, the nation’s
leading advisory on essential services stocks, bonds and preferred stocks. His
proprietary safety rating system evaluates the prospects of every significant
electric, natural gas, telecommunications and water company, including
utility-based mutual funds and foreign utilities. Roger’s penchant for detailed
research and his studied insights into utilities markets have garnered him a
wide audience of subscribers—not to mention a bevy of industry awards for his
perceptive reporting, commentary and investment advice.
He brings the same
enthusiasm and intelligence to Roger Conrad’s Canadian Edge,
an Internet-based publication devoted to uncovering lucrative investment
opportunities in Canadian royalty trusts. Roger’s exhaustive coverage of how
recent changes to Canada’s tax laws will affect these companies has earned him
a reputation as one of the leading authorities on Canadian trusts. Subscribers
and the national media often contact him for information on the latest economic
developments and investment opportunities north of the border.
Roger is also
associate editor of Personal Finance and co-editor of Vital Resource
Investor, a subscription-based service that seeks opportunities for equity
investors in the natural resource markets across the world.
He holds a bachelor’s
degree from Emory University and a master’s degree in international management
from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird). In
addition, he is the author of Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in
Telecommunications, Utilities and Other Essential Services and coauthor of The
Agile Investor and Market Timing for the Nineties with Stephen Leeb.
He is also an avid outdoorsman and baseball fan.
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