We’re on the ground at the Las Vegas Money Show, enjoying unusually mild, La Jolla-like weather in America’s Playground.
Several Canadian trusts--including
Penn West Energy Trust,
Paramount Energy Trust and
Enerplus Resources--are
exhibiting in the convention hall, and we’ll be tracking down
representatives during our stay; we’ll pass along any insights we’re
able to glean.
What’s remarkable thus far is the sheer number of
self-directed investors making the rounds. Registration was up more
than 30 percent for the show, which seems counterintuitive given the
prevailing noise about the market and the economy.
At its most
basic level, though, investing is an optimist’s endeavor: It’s
inherently forward-looking. You must have some faith that things will
improve if you’re going to lay out hard-earned cash for companies.
Short-term
market gyrations and temporary economic setbacks aside, we do this to
make money over time. The dips and depressions can be tough, but you’ve
got to stay in the game.
Looking Forward Canadian
Edge began life in a still-expanding world of income trusts. Much has
changed since July 2004--our understanding of Canada’s politics, what
it means for the business climate and the economic fundamentals that
underlie it all.
The Oct. 31, 2006, announcement that Canada
would begin taxing specified investment flow-throughs (SIFT) at the
entity level--effectively eliminating the advantage that allowed trusts
to pass cash flow on to unitholders to be taxed in their
hands--obviously had significant implications for
CE and our readers.
CE
is essentially an income-focused investment advisory, but as Warren
Buffett famously said and as has always been the fundamental
underpinning of what we do here, when you invest in a company, you’re
buying a business. A steady dividend stream is a reliable route to
building wealth--but first and foremost is what’s happening at the
operational level.
Canada’s political dialogue in superficial
ways mirrors the one down here: You have “liberals” and
“conservatives,” seemingly intractable policy differences at the
headline level, apparently irreconcilable regional priorities. What you
don’t have, however, and crucially, is a vocal, powerful segment of the
ruling class seriously advocating for a government you could drown in a
bathtub. There’s a broad recognition that government can and should
reconcile the inevitable inefficiencies a robust but imperfect market
economy creates.
The bottom line is the Canadian economy is
fundamentally sound, anchored by a solid balance sheet and ample
natural resources. The federal government was running a CAD12.9 billion
surplus for the 11 months ended Feb. 29, 2008. (That number will come
down after CAD2.5 billion in year-end adjustments based on allocation
of funds for public transit and a project to demonstrate how companies
may be able to capture and store carbon emissions.)
Canada’s
minority Conservative government also pushed through a five-year, CAD60
billion tax-cut package last year to help shield the world’s
eighth-largest economy from a slowdown in the US. The plan included
immediate reductions in personal income taxes and a 1 percentage point
cut in the federal sales tax as of Jan. 1. In the end, the 2007-08
surplus will come in about 16 percent below the CAD15.29 billion posted
for 2006-07.
Employment in Canada is not only growing, but the
proportion of the adult population with jobs has reached a record high
of 63.9 percent. In the US, this ratio has been dropping sharply, down
0.6 to 62.7 percent so far.
Retail sales are up 6.8 percent in
Canada over this time last year. In the US, sales are up just 2.9
percent and growth is still slowing. Housing construction, a major
creator of employment in recent years, has collapsed in the US to
roughly half its peak level, down 29 percent just in the past year.
It’s still rising in Canada, up 3.9 percent over the past year.
Home
prices, a crucial indicator of household wealth because a home is the
most valuable asset for most families, have plunged nearly 13 percent
on average in the US over the past year, and the rate of decline has
accelerated in recent months. By contrast, Canadian home prices are up
by more than 5 percent over the past year. Auto sales, a useful index
of consumers’ willingness and ability to make a big purchase, are down
7.7 percent in the US this year, to a 10-year low. They're up 6.1
percent in Canada to a new record.
And Canada, unusual among
developed countries in the importance of natural resources and raw
materials, now ranks with the world’s top five producers of 14 mineral
commodities. Overall, commodities account for about half of Canada’s
exports.
With all that in mind, we’ve broadened our coverage of investment opportunities in the Great White North.
The
original approach to Canada-based companies outside the income and
royalty trust space centered on dividend payers. But we ignored that
loose construct in our first discussion in the April 2007 issue of
CE, recommending alternative power generator
Canadian Hydro Developers, a long-term growth play on increasing awareness of and demand for cleaner sources of electricity.
We’ve added our non-trust recommendations to How They Rate coverage, grouped at the bottom of the table. The plan is expand the
Canadian Edge
universe, slowly, over time, building on the same principles that frame
our trust coverage: Buy good businesses at value-based levels, and
stick around for the long term.
Speaking EngagementsBe
sure to wear a flower in your hair when you
venture west to San Francisco. I’ll be heading to "The City" with Neil
George and Elliott Gue Aug. 7-10, 2008, for the San Francisco Money
Show.
Neil, Elliott and I will discuss infrastructure,
partnerships, utilities, resources and energy, and to tell you what to
buy and what to sell in 2008.
Click here or call 800-970-4355 and refer to priority code 011362 to attend as our guest.
Roger Conrad
Roger S. Conrad is
editor of Utility Forecaster, the nation’s
leading advisory on essential services stocks, bonds and preferred stocks. His
proprietary safety rating system evaluates the prospects of every significant
electric, natural gas, telecommunications and water company, including
utility-based mutual funds and foreign utilities. Roger’s penchant for detailed
research and his studied insights into utilities markets have garnered him a
wide audience of subscribers—not to mention a bevy of industry awards for his
perceptive reporting, commentary and investment advice.
He brings the same
enthusiasm and intelligence to Roger Conrad’s Canadian Edge,
an Internet-based publication devoted to uncovering lucrative investment
opportunities in Canadian royalty trusts. Roger’s exhaustive coverage of how
recent changes to Canada’s tax laws will affect these companies has earned him
a reputation as one of the leading authorities on Canadian trusts. Subscribers
and the national media often contact him for information on the latest economic
developments and investment opportunities north of the border.
Roger is also
associate editor of Personal Finance and co-editor of Vital Resource
Investor, a subscription-based service that seeks opportunities for equity
investors in the natural resource markets across the world.
He holds a bachelor’s
degree from Emory University and a master’s degree in international management
from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird). In
addition, he is the author of Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in
Telecommunications, Utilities and Other Essential Services and coauthor of The
Agile Investor and Market Timing for the Nineties with Stephen Leeb.
He is also an avid outdoorsman and baseball fan.
View all articles by Roger Conrad