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Investment Commentary

I’d like a company I recommend to post improved numbers every quarter. That’s not necessarily earnings per share, or even distributions per share, but a group of metrics I consider to be important in gauging the health of the business.

India’s central bank bought 200 tons of the gold from the International Monetary Fund; the US unemployment rate has broken 10 percent for the first time since 1983; and the Federal Open Market Committee is continuing to hold interest rates at or near zero. All of these factors add up to higher gold prices.

The movement founded by people pejoratively labeled as tree-huggers, enviro-Nazis and hippies has now been joined by governments, multinational corporations and the armed services. Here’s a rundown of recent news stories that demonstrate how Cleantech is moving forward, both as a concept and burgeoning industry.

Cyclical names should continue to do well, especially in Asia, but investors should consider some defensive plays--I favor consumer staples names with exposure to Asia.

Anyone for THAI?

Estimates from experimental tests indicate that the process can recover as much as 80 percent of original oil-in-place while partially upgrading the crude oil in situ.

Parsing GDP

There’s enough slack in inventory data and additional stimulus in the pipeline to keep the economy growing for the next few quarters.

Beyond GDP

Friday’s sharp reversal of Thursday’s gain is a pretty stark reminder of how little (if any) conviction investors have about things getting better, and how willing they are to sell at any provocation. That kind of sentiment is usually a bullish sign for stocks in the longer term.

Getting Off on a Technicality

Yesterday’s euphoria over a better-than-expected GDP reading gave way to reality after today’s release of sobering consumer spending data.

My Hedge Fund Portfolio Keeps Moving Ahead

Hedge funds continue to make headlines, and most of them are not good. The big insider-trading case involved a hedge fund firm, and news stories indicate the investment process of the firm was to get an “information edge” that apparently included insider information on a regular basis. Forbes magazine had an article asking “How Dirty Are Hedge Funds?” Its answer was “filthy.”


ISM is the Key

The point to understand here is that the year-long rally in emerging markets isn’t based on the conviction that the global economy is completely out of the woods and that the Anglo-Saxon financial system has resolved all its problems.

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